Real Clear Politics now projects that Mitt Romney has more likely electoral votes than President Barack Obama, although Romney is well short of the 270 votes needed to win the election.
Mitt_Romney_campaigningIt is the first time since February that the website says Romney has more likely electoral votes than Obama.
On Friday, Romney has a projected total of 206 votes, compared with 201 for Obama. The change came when Real Clear Politics (RCP) removed North Carolina from its toss-up category and put it among states likely voting for the GOP contender.
The move isn’t entirely unexpected, since the Romney campaign is also reportedly moving resources from North Carolina to other battleground states.
That leaves 10 swing states and 131 electoral votes up for grabs, at least by Real Clear Politics’ count.
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Based on its method of pulling together disparate polls, RCP projects a 294-244 win for Obama, if the voting was held today nationally and if it reflected recent consensus poll results. The victory would come from the Democrats taking Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Virginia.
Virginia and its 13 electoral votes seem more promising for the Romney camp as three recent polls have the Republican candidate ahead in the state. Combined with Virginia, another 13 votes from among the toss-up states would most likely give Romney a win in November with 270 votes.
The vote in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia seems extremely close, with a consensus polling gap under 1 percent in the three battleground states.
The X factor could be separate electoral votes that are accounted to congressional districts in Omaha and in rural Maine. A swing of one vote from Omaha to President Obama, in that scenario, would leave the election tied after Election Day, and in the hand of state electors around the country.
In event of a tie, the constitutional system under the 12th Amendment provides for each state, once it settles any recounts or contested votes, to send its electoral votes to the president of the U.S. Senate, which is always the current vice president, to be counted. If that election is a tie, the contest goes to Congress to be settled.
On Friday, President Obama was in northern Virginia trying to get out the vote for the Democrats. Romney had appeared in Virginia on Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C., television market, which broadcasts into northern Virginia, has been saturated with attack ads from both candidates and their surrogates.
I am not basing my thoughts on facts but just what I feel is happening right now. It seems to me that internal polling by both sides are showing a huge surge for Romney that is showing up across several states - my guess is from Mitt's debate performances, both of which were good. The Obama campaign wheels seem to be falling off, perhaps because these internal numbers are so disconcerting to them... I only anecdotal evidence but it seems there really is alot of negativity toward Obama and from people you might not necessarily expect...cops, teachers, union tradespeople and so forth. The media has always been his third arm in the fight and he is losing them NOW because the numbers are starting to trend so badly for Obama that they want to create the narrative that things are suddenly swinging for Romney so they do not look completely useless come election day. They are spending time talking about Big Bird and a binder. Really bizarre...
ReplyDeleteAnother family member lost his job,I voted for Obama last time,but not this time. Our family will be voting for Romney. We believed what Obama had said,that he could turn things around for our nation. HE HAS NOT. He has let us down,he has not done what he had promised. If he had, we would not have 6 forclosed homes on our block. My brother and several friends would be working. We can't take 4 more years of lies. The change will do us good.
DeleteJust remember folks,VOTE, and tell everyone in your family to vote. Let's send this bum packing. We'll start here and move the slugs out of the ward next. We can do this........
ReplyDeleteFran Hurley, pro abortion and pro gay marriage.
ReplyDeleteDemocrats falsely claim that there is a war on women. That is subterfuge for the real war which is the Democrats like Hurley's war on Catholics. Quinn goes after pensions many have worked hard and paid for, madigan, rham are after workers also. Maloney and democrats who have run this state for years haven't paid the state's bills, but unions want us to be afraid of republicans. BS, I am voting against every Democrat, Period!
ReplyDeleteI lost my job and my house is being foreclosed. My family are lifelong democrats. I voted for Obama because I believed he would make a difference, bring jobs back, get us on track. But he's done nothing and now he wants us to give him four more years. I can't vote for him this time. Have never voted republican before, but I'm voting for Romney.
ReplyDeleteThose of us old enough to remember Watergate will recall that the cover up was the beginning of the end. The Obama.Biden,Axelrod cover up is far worse and will break the 8 year cycle.
ReplyDeleteI think it is really refreshing to hear from people who have been Democrats loyally for their lives who now are willing to vote for the Republican. As a conservative/traditional leaning Irish south sider I have seen the Democrat Party drift farther and farther to the left. Our family basically switched in the 80's when Reagan fixed the economy. I really feel that the Democrats have contempt for basic traditional views of the average American. I feel like they could care less about white, middle class Catholics. They seem like they think they are hobbling together a strange coalition of blacks, Latinos, homosexuals and those union folks who follow their union more closely than their religion. Pretty sick and I am not surprised that Frank is ducking phone calls, debates, or anywhere else she may have to face her opponent.
ReplyDeleteObama does not really care if white ethnics are unemployed. You are the enemy. You are clinging to your guns and religion. If he did care he would not have spent the first year and a half pushing ObamaCare. He would have focused on the economy. He did not even invite the US Chamber of Commerce to his job summit. He hates them because they are conservative. He had the WH, the Senate and the House of Reps and did NOTHING....during all that time more and more people lost their jobs, their life savings, their homes, their inheritances....so much.... it does not take 4 years to turn the US economy the right way...it just takes good policies....the Democrats are the Socialist Party in America and we truly are becoming Europe, with high unemployment, little oppty for upward mobility, with the big State deciding who gets what piece of the pie. We may have only this one chance to stop this lunacy...get out get a bumper sticker, get a sign, get involved, speak up at the park, schoolyard, wherever and tell your neighbors how you feel..It is cathartic. And even if Obama happens to win AGAIN you will at least feel like you did something....
ReplyDeleteI would like to humbly offer another way for people to help Romney. Pray! Seriously, we should take to heart the teachings of our churches that prayer works! I am not saying JUST pray, but do pray! There is an old saying "Pray as if everything depends on God and work as if everything depends on you." Not saying that the Big Man is a Republican, but I think Mitt is someone we can ask to have put in the WH and not have God laugh ~!
ReplyDeleteAs of today, Monday, 10.22, Obama is up five points in Ohio, and Sherrod Brown is up 9. This is as reported by Newsmax, a rightwing publication. The race will come down to Ohio.
ReplyDelete