Could Obama lose Illinois?

COULD OBAMA LOSE ILLINOIS?

Couldn't happen, most said earlier this week, when Illinois Review posted a piece by political strategist Bruce Donnelly saying Illinois will not be a walk away win for Barack Obama in 2012.  It's dark, dark blue, we heard, don't promote such ridiculous conservative fantasies. 

Shocking as it may be, Investors Business Daily posted an editorial Friday night saying Obama is in trouble - even in Illinois.  From IDB:

Campaign 2012: When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually  tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and  is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.

In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and  Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County,  which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.

That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate  vote.

"He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he's gonna have  problems downstate," explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he's  seen, Obama polled only in the 40s in downstate Illinois.

If his poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters and had a margin of error  of plus/minus 3.4%, is accurate, Obama would be in some trouble.

In the city of Chicago itself, McKeon found Obama with a 60-29 lead over  Romney. But Romney led 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a  whole, Romney led 43-31 among independent voters and held a 44-38 lead among  male voters.

McKeon noted that in the 2010 gubernatorial race Republican Bill Brady came  within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of  the downstate counties that have traditionally resisted and resented being  dominated by upstate Chicago politicians.

Considered an outlier of little significance amidst national polls showing  Illinois remaining one of the bluest of blue states, the poll received scant  attention.

Now comes a new poll from WeAskAmerica that finds Obama with just a 2-point  lead over Romney, 47-45, in a suburban Chicago congressional district that Obama  won in 2008 by 23 points.

Illinois' 10th Congressional District, which includes parts of Cook County,  is an affluent district chock full of the same independent voters that will  decide the presidential contest nationally. In 2008, Obama won 61% of the vote  there. Al Gore and John Kerry comfortably carried the district in 200 and 2004  respectively.

"For Mr. Obama to be in a statistical tie in an area that he won by around 20  points in 2008 truly reveals the failure of his presidency," said Illinois-based  political consultant Paul Miller. "The economy is undoubtedly the key factor,  but in suburbs with a large Jewish population, his treatment of Israel is also  taking its toll."

Illinois is an economic basket case burdened by huge debt and liabilities and  burdened by Gov. Pat Quinn's recent increases in income and corporate taxes.

Businesses have fled the state as Chicago hemorrhages population, some  200,000 having fled Obamaville in a decade. The natives are clearly  restless.

Downstate Illinois has traditionally resented Chicago's dominance in state  government. Its state senators and representatives, almost all from safe seats  in machine controlled Chicago and Cook County, dominate the legislature and even  control the governor's mansion. Disgraced and now incarcerated Gov. Rod  Blagojevich is just one such Chicago pol.

"Unfortunately for the GOP, they wrote off Illinois before the campaign  season began," noted Miller. "Considering that President Obama may underperform  by a large percentage, and that his numbers in Cook County are not nearly as  strong as they were four years ago, Illinois could have been in play. It may not  be too late to make IllinoisCouldn't happen, most said earlier this week, when Illinois Review posted a piece by political strategist Bruce Donnelly saying Illinois will not be a walk away win for Barack Obama in 2012.  It's dark, dark blue, we heard, don't promote such ridiculous conservative fantasies. 

Shocking as it may be, Investors Business Daily posted an editorial Friday night saying Obama is in trouble - even in Illinois.  From IDB:

Campaign 2012: When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually  tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and  is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.

In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and  Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County,  which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.

That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate  vote.

"He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he's gonna have  problems downstate," explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he's  seen, Obama polled only in the 40s in downstate Illinois.

If his poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters and had a margin of error  of plus/minus 3.4%, is accurate, Obama would be in some trouble.

In the city of Chicago itself, McKeon found Obama with a 60-29 lead over  Romney. But Romney led 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a  whole, Romney led 43-31 among independent voters and held a 44-38 lead among  male voters.

McKeon noted that in the 2010 gubernatorial race Republican Bill Brady came  within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of  the downstate counties that have traditionally resisted and resented being  dominated by upstate Chicago politicians.

Considered an outlier of little significance amidst national polls showing  Illinois remaining one of the bluest of blue states, the poll received scant  attention.

Now comes a new poll from WeAskAmerica that finds Obama with just a 2-point  lead over Romney, 47-45, in a suburban Chicago congressional district that Obama  won in 2008 by 23 points.

Illinois' 10th Congressional District, which includes parts of Cook County,  is an affluent district chock full of the same independent voters that will  decide the presidential contest nationally. In 2008, Obama won 61% of the vote  there. Al Gore and John Kerry comfortably carried the district in 200 and 2004  respectively.

"For Mr. Obama to be in a statistical tie in an area that he won by around 20  points in 2008 truly reveals the failure of his presidency," said Illinois-based  political consultant Paul Miller. "The economy is undoubtedly the key factor,  but in suburbs with a large Jewish population, his treatment of Israel is also  taking its toll."

Illinois is an economic basket case burdened by huge debt and liabilities and  burdened by Gov. Pat Quinn's recent increases in income and corporate taxes.

Businesses have fled the state as Chicago hemorrhages population, some  200,000 having fled Obamaville in a decade. The natives are clearly  restless.

Downstate Illinois has traditionally resented Chicago's dominance in state  government. Its state senators and representatives, almost all from safe seats  in machine controlled Chicago and Cook County, dominate the legislature and even  control the governor's mansion. Disgraced and now incarcerated Gov. Rod  Blagojevich is just one such Chicago pol.

"Unfortunately for the GOP, they wrote off Illinois before the campaign  season began," noted Miller. "Considering that President Obama may underperform  by a large percentage, and that his numbers in Cook County are not nearly as  strong as they were four years ago, Illinois could have been in play. It may not  be too late to make Illinois purple."

In 2000, Al Gore lost the presidency, not because of hanging chads in  Florida, but because he couldn't carry his home state of Tennessee.

If Romney wins big, Illinois may be part of the landslide. If Romney loses  narrowly, Illinois might be proof of the folly of listening  purple."

In 2000, Al Gore lost the.

If Romney wins big, Illinois may be part of the landslide. If Romney loses  narrowly, Illinois might be proof of the folly of listening to the conventional  wisdom and might be the big one that got away.